Business schools are seeing broad shifts in the student pipelines for their programs, and GMAC President and CEO David A. Wilson says three key factors are at play: new landscapes, talent, and destinations.

Speaking on a panel titled “Guess Who’s Coming to Class?” earlier this month at the AACSB Deans Conference in Tampa, Florida, Wilson said 2009 reached a milestone in the demand for graduate business education, as evidenced by a record 265,613 GMAT exams taken in the testing year ending June 30, 2009 (TY2009). For the first time in GMAT history, most of the tests (51 percent) were taken by non-US citizens.

“It’s a global market completely,” Wilson said. GMAT exam trends correspond to growth in applications, he said, noting that 75 percent of full-time MBA programs in the Asia Pacific region reported a rise in application volume, compared with 64 percent of MBA programs in the US in GMAC’s 2009 Application Trends Survey.

Several macro forces are influencing the channels of students interested in graduate management education, Wilson said:

• Economic growth and job creation. Growing economies create jobs and career advancement opportunities. GMAC research finds that some 70 percent of employers expect their business will improve in 2010. That tracks with broader global indicators, Wilson said, noting that in January the head of the International Monetary Fund said China and other developing Asian economies are leading a global recovery that is faster and stronger than was expected just a few months ago.
• Population changes. Predicted shifts in the student-age population (20-29) may prompt some business schools to change priorities and recruitment locations. Africa, for example, expects a 50 percent increase in this cohort over the next two decades. The Americas, meanwhile, will experience modest growth—8 percent in North America and 4 percent in South America. The student population in Asia is expected to be stable until 2025, after which it will lose 5 percent when compared with today’s numbers. Europe may face the toughest situation, as the region expects a nearly 25 percent decline in student-age population.
• Shifts in population within regions. Within Asia, while India stands to gain 28 million people in the student-age group over the next two decades, China will lose 76 million. Similarly, Germany expects to lose nearly 2 million, while France expects a gain of nearly a quarter-million. In the US, a rise of some 4.8 million potential students is expected by 2030.
• Age range diversity. GMAT test-takers worldwide are largely in the 24-30 age bracket, but those examinees younger than 24 increased 132 percent between testing years 2005 and 2009.
• Student mobility. “One of the interesting things is that non-US test-takers are sending more scores to places other than the US,” Wilson said. GMAT test-takers sent some 170,000 scores to destinations outside the US in TY2009, up from approximately 90,000 in TY2005. Score-sending patterns shifted away from US programs in nine of 10 global regions. Yet, business schools in the US still received 78 percent of all GMAT scores sent in TY2009, propped up by the high propensity of US citizens (98%) to send score reports to US schools.

Business schools need to assess, among other implications, how a potentially younger cohort with less work experience might affect class discussions, team projects, and school dynamics, Wilson said. Similarly, he said, schools should consider that some students today may be approaching management education as a safe harbor from the current recession and that their motivations and expectations might differ compared with previous classes.

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Get insider intelligence: Admissions directors interested in an early read on 2010 admissions trends can participate in GMAC’s Preliminary Application Trends Survey from February 3-17. The private email survey asks just five critical questions and gives participants fast results only two weeks after the survey closes. Findings are not shared with non-participants or the media. Email research@gmac.com.